6th Annual Conference on Chinese Capital Markets

China's Future Economic Growth

December 9th, 2016

Greenberg Lounge, 40 Washington Square South

All use of this information must cite the NYU Center on U.S.-China Relations

 

Conference Agenda:

Registration and Breakfast
8:30--9:00


Opening Remarks
9:00--9:15
Prof. David Denoon (Professor of Politics & Economics, NYU; Director, NYU Center for U.S.-China Relations)

Panel 1
9:15--10:25
Macro Economic Forecasts

Moderator: Matthew Nimetz (Advisory Director, General Atlantic LLC)

Paul Sheard (Executive Vice President & Chief Economist, S&P Global): "China's Growth Challenges: Some Lessons from Japan"


Longmei Zhang (Economist, Asia Pacific Department, IMF): "Alternative Forecasts of China's Growth"

slides

Karen Harris (Managing Director, Macro Trends Group, Bain & Company): "Competing Views of China's Prospects"




Panel 2

10:40--11:50

Demographic Change
Moderator:  Hugh Patrick (Director, Center on Japan Economy and Business, Columbia Business School)

Richard Katz (Editor-in-Chief, The Oriental Economist): "The Implications of Japan's Demographic Profile"

slides

Prof. Guillermina Jasso (Silver Professor and Professor of Sociology, NYU): "Inequality, Justice and Future China-Japan Comparison?"


Prof. Feng Wang (Professor of Sociology, UC Irvine): "The Implications of China's Demographic Profile"




Luncheon
12:00--1:00


Keynote Interview

1:00--1:30

Arthur Kroeber (Managing Director, GaveKal Dragonomics): "Will China's Economy Continues to Slow Down?"


Panel 3
1:40--2:50

Total Factor Productivity (TFP), Patents and Trends in Education

Moderator: Prof. Stephen Figlewski (Professor of Finance, NYU Stern School of Business)

Prof. M.I. Nadiri (Jay Gould Professor of Economics, NYU; National Bureau of Economic Research): "Measuring TFP"


Tony Tong (Professor of Management, Krannert School of Management, Purdue University): "Patent Flows In and Out of China"

slides

Prashant Loyalka (Center Research Fellow, Freeman Spogli Institute, Stanford University): "What Are the Trends in China's Human Capital?"

slides



Concluding Reception

2:50--3:30





Bios:



David Denoon

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David Denoon is Professor of Politics and Economics at New York University and Director of the NYU Center on U.S.-China Relations. He has a B.A. from Harvard, an M.P.A. from Princeton, and a Ph.D. from M.I.T.; and has served in the Federal Government in three positions: Program Economist for USAID in Jakarta, Vice President of the U.S. Export-Import Bank, and Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense.

Professor Denoon is a member of the Council on Foreign Relations, the National Committee on U.S.-China Relations, the Asia Society, the U.S.-Indonesia Society, and is Co-Chairman of the New York University Asia Policy Seminar. He is Chairman of the Editorial Advisory Board of Great Decisions. He is the author and editor of eight books, including Real Reciprocity - Balancing U.S. Economic and Security Policy in the Pacific Basin. He has three recent books, a monograph titled The Economic and Strategic Rise of China and India (Palgrave-Macmillan) and two edited volumes, China: Contemporary Political, Economic, and International Affairs (NYU Press), and China, the U.S. and the Future of Central Asia (NYU Press, 2015).



Stephen Figlewski


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Stephen Figlewski is a Professor of Finance at the New York University Leonard N. Stern School of Business, where he has been since 1976. He holds a B.A. in Economics from Princeton University and a Ph.D in Economics from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.

He has published extensively in academic journals, especially in the area of financial futures and options. He is the founding Editor of The Journal of Derivatives and he also edits the Financial Economics Network's two "Derivatives" series published over the Internet. He is the director of the NASDAQ OMX Derivatives Research Project, which is a research initiative at the Stern School that supports applied and theoretical research on derivatives and promotes intellectual interchange between academics and practitioners in derivatives, risk management, and financial engineering.

Professor Figlewski has also worked on Wall Street. Recently he took a leave of absence to work on margin setting for credit-sensitive securities at Citigroup. Previously, he spent a year at the First Boston Corporation, in charge of research on equity derivative products, and was at one time a member of the New York Futures Exchange and a Competitive Options Trader at the New York Stock Exchange.


Karen Haris

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Karen Harris is the Managing Director of Bain & Company's Macro Trends Group. Karen frequently works with institutional investors to embed macro strategy into their investment strategy and due diligence. She is regularly featured in major media outlets including the Wall Street Journal, Financial Times, Forbes, Economic Times of India, Caijing China, CEO Forum Australia, Bloomberg Television and Global Entrepolis Singapore.

She is a member of the Council on Foreign Relations, the National Committee on U.S.-China Relations and the Economics Club of New York. She also serves on the Board of Pencils of Promise.

Karen has an MBA with distinction from Harvard Business School and a JD from Columbia Law School. She graduated with honors from Stanford University, where she received a BA in Economics and a BA in International Relations.


Guillermina Jasso

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Guillermina Jasso is Silver Professor and Professor of Sociology at NYU. She was the founding director of the Methods Workshop at New York University (1991-1997) and the founding director of the Theory Workshop at the University of Iowa (1988-1991), as well as a co-founder of the Life Course Center at the University of Minnesota. She served as Special Assistant to the Commissioner of the U.S. Immigration and Naturalization Service (1977-1979) and as Director of Research for the U.S. Select Commission on Immigration and Refugee Policy (1979-1980). She served as Chair of the Department of Sociology at New York University in 2012-2015. 

Jasso has published widely in scholarly journals, including two articles which won awards from the Population Section of the American Sociological Association and the Law and Society Association. She is a Principal Investigator of the New Immigrant Survey, the first national longitudinal survey of immigrants in the United States.

Jasso is an elected member/fellow of the Johns Hopkins Society of Scholars, the Sociological Research Association, the NYU Society of Fellows, and the American Association for the Advancement of Science.


Richard Katz

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Richard Katz is Editor-in-Chief of The Oriental Economist Report (TOE). He is also a special correspondent at Weekly Toyo Keizai, a leading Japanese business weekly. He authored two books on Japan. The first was Japan: The System That Soured--The Rise and Fall of the Japanese Economic Miracle (M.E. Sharpe,1998), followed byJapanese Phoenix: The Long Road to Economic Revival (M.E. Sharpe, 2002). Toyo Keizai Shimposa published them in Japanese. 

He has taught about Japan as an adjunct professor in economics at the State University of New York at Stony Brook and at the New York University Stern School of Business, and has testified several times before Congress. He regularly writes op-eds and essays for newspapers and magazines, including “Voodoo Abenomics” in the July-August 2014 issue of Foreign Affairs. Mr. Katz received his M.A. in Economics from New York University in 1996. 



Arthur R. Kroeber

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Arthur R. Kroeber is the director of GaveKal Dragonomics, an independent global economic research firm, and Editor of its journal, China Economic Quarterly. He is a non-resident senior fellow of the Brookings-Tsinghua Center, where his research focuses on China’s engagement with global economic institutions. Mr. Kroeber is based in Beijing, where he has lived since 2002.

Before joining GaveKal Dragonomics, Mr Kroeber worked for fifteen years as a financial journalist and economic analyst in China, Taiwan, and India. He has written for Foreign Policy, The Economist, The Far Eastern Economic Review, Fortune, and Wired and is a contributor to the opinion pages of The Financial Times, Wall Street Journal, and Washington Post. He authored the book China's Economy: What Everyone Needs to Know (Oxford University Press, 2016).

He is a member of the National Committee on U.S.-China Relations, the Fernand Braudel Institute of International Economics, and the board of the Research Center for Chinese Politics and Business at Indiana University.

 

Prashant Loyalka

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Prashant Loyalka is a Center Research Fellow at the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies and a Faculty Member of the Rural Education Action Program at Stanford University. His research focuses on examining/addressing inequalities in the education of youth and on understanding/improving the quality of education received by youth in large developing economies, including China, Russia and India.

Before coming to Stanford, Prashant worked as an Assistant Professor in Peking University. He spent five years (2007-2012) at the China Institute for Educational Finance Research, a think tank that conducts research and makes policy recommendations directly to China's Ministries of Finance and Education.


M.I. Nadiri

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Prof. Nadiri joined the faculty of the Economics Department at New York University in 1970.  He served as Chairman of the Department from 1972-78. Additionally, Prof. Nadiri founded and served as the first director of the C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics.  In 1975, he was named the Jay Gould Professor of Economics.  A longstanding member of the National Bureau of Economic Research, Prof. Nadiri is a member of the Council of Foreign Relations.

Prof. Nadiri's main research topics are productivity analysis, economics of R&D and technical change, telecommunications economics and investment modeling and growth.  In recent years, his research efforts have extended to economic responses to terrorism, post-conflict reconstruction and economies of failed states.

Prof. Nadiri was a participant in the Bonn talks which created the Interim Government in Afghanistan, as well as in the Tokyo talks set up to attract international funding for Afghanistan's major reconstruction efforts.  

From 2005-08, Prof. Nadiri served as the Senior Economic Advisor to President Hamid Karzai in Afghanistan (SEAP).  Additionally, Prof. Nadiri was appointed as the Chairman of the Afghanistan National Development Strategy (ANDS) and Co-Chair of the Joint Coordinating and Monitoring Board (JCMB).


Mathew Nimetz

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Mr. Nimetz was a Managing Director and the Chief Operating Officer of General Atlantic from 2000 through 2011 and now works with GA as an Advisory Director.

Prior to joining General Atlantic in January 2000, Mr. Nimetz was a Partner (and former Chair) of the law firm Paul, Weiss, Rifkind, Wharton & Garrison in New York City, where he concentrated on corporate, securities, financing and international law from December 1980 through January 2000. He previously practiced law as an associate, and Partner, of Simpson Thacher & Bartlett between 1969 and 1977.


Hugh Patrick


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Hugh Patrick is director of CJEB, co-director of Columbia's APEC Study Center, and R. D. Calkins Professor of International Business Emeritus at Columbia Business School. He joined the Columbia faculty in 1984 after some years as professor of economics and director of the Economic Growth Center at Yale University.

He completed his BA at Yale University in 1951, earned MA degrees in Japanese studies (1955) and economics (1957), and a PhD in economics at the University of Michigan (1960). He has been a visiting professor at Hitotsubashi University, the University of Tokyo, and the University of Bombay. Professor Patrick has been awarded Guggenheim and Fulbright fellowships and the Ohira Prize.

His professional publications include 16 books and some 60 articles and essays. His major fields of published research on Japan include macroeconomic performance and policy, banking and financial markets, government-business relations, and Japan-United States economic relations. His publications include Reviving Japan's Economy: Problems and Prescriptions (MIT Press, 2005), coauthored and co-edited with Takatoshi Ito and David E. Weinstein; and How Finance Is Shaping the Economies of China, Japan, and Korea (Columbia University Press, 2013), co-edited with Yung Chul Park.

He is on the Board of Directors of the United States Asia Pacific Council and has been a member of the Council of Foreign Relations since 1974.


Paul Sheard

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Paul Sheard is Executive Vice President and Chief Economist of S&P Global. Teams led by Dr. Sheard provide the macroeconomic forecasts used by S&P  Global Ratings’ analysts during the ratings process, conduct fixed income  research, analyze credit ratings performance, and promote cross-divisional research collaboration. Dr. Sheard chairs the S&P Global Ratings Academic Council and is also a member of the S&P Global Ratings Executive Committee. 

Previously, Dr. Sheard held chief economist positions at Nomura Securities and  at Lehman Brothers and earlier he had been Head of Japan Equity Investments  and Japan Strategist at Baring Asset Management in Tokyo. Earlier in his career, Dr. Sheard was on the faculty at the Australian National University (ANU) and at Osaka University, and was a visiting researcher at Stanford University and at the Bank of Japan. Author or editor of several books and numerous articles on the Japanese economy, Dr. Sheard won the Suntory- Gakugei Prize in the Economics–Politics Division for his book, The Crisis of Main  Bank Capitalism. 

Dr. Sheard received his bachelor’s degree from Monash University in Australia and a master’s degree in Economics and a Ph.D. from the ANU.


Tony Tong

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Tony Tong is an Associate Professor of Strategy and Entrepreneurship in the Leeds School of Business at the University of Colorado Boulder. His research interests revolve around companies’ corporate strategy choices and their impact on performance. Recent research focuses on the intersection between corporate strategy and innovation, and he has investigated topics such as mergers & acquisitions, multinational enterprises, corporate venture capital, and patents and intellectual property rights (with a focus on China).

He has published widely in leading academic journals in strategy as well as international business. He currently serves on the editorial boards of Academy of Management Journal, Global Strategy Journal, Strategic Management Journal, and Strategic Organization, among others. He has received many awards for his research including the Winner of the Strategic Management Society Best Conference Paper Prize (2011) and the Winner of the IACMR/Emerald Chinese Management Research Fund Award (2011). His research is supported by many organizations including the National Science Foundation (NSF), the Department of Energy (DOE), and the National Natural Science Foundation of China (NSFC).


Feng Wang

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WANG Feng is professor of sociology at the University of California, Irvine and professor of sociology and demography at Fudan University in China. He is a widely-known expert on social and demographic changes and social inequality in China and has published extensively on these subjects. His work and views have appeared in numerous global scholarly and media outlets. Professor Wang is a co-author of the book One Quarter of Humanity: Malthusian Mythology and Chinese Realities, 1700-2000 (Harvard University Press, 1999) and of Prudence and Pressure: Reproduction and Human Agency in Europe and Asia, 1700-1900 (MIT Press 2010). His recent work on social inequality in China includes Boundaries and Categories, Rising Inequality in Post-Socialist Urban China (Stanford University Press, 2008), Creating Wealth and Poverty in Post-Socialist China (Stanford University Press, 2009), and China Faces Inequality: Studies in Income Distribution (co-edited, Social Sciences Academic Press of China, 2013).

Professor Wang served as a member in the Global Agenda Council on Population Growth of the World Economic Forum (2009-2011), and Expert Group for United Nations Population Division. Between 2010 and 2013, he was a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution and the director of the Brookings-Tsinghua Center for Public Policy in Beijing, and between 2007 and 2010, he served as the chair of the Department of Sociology at the University of California, Irvine.


Longmei Zhang

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Longmei Zhang is an economist in the IMF’s Asia and Pacific Department, working on China. Previously, she has worked on Romania, the Philippines, and regional issues in Asia. Her research covers a wide range of topics, including long-term growth, financial frictions and business cycles, macroprudential policy and corporate leverage. She holds a PhD in Economics from Goethe University Frankfurt.